Today’s members-only Inner Circle session featured Nick Lane—Chief Messaging Officer at Mobilesquared and self-described Messagologist. Nick has been a leading voice in the messaging space for years, and today he walked us through what’s changing (and what isn’t) in A2P messaging, RCS, and mobile identity.
Here are some key takeaways:
✅ SMS: Post-Peak, But Still Foundational
Mobilesquared’s latest data shows SMS traffic and spend are both in decline—down around 26% by 2029. But don’t write it off. SMS still accounts for more than 50% of CPaaS spend and remains central for one-time passwords (OTP) and alerts. The post-COVID boom may be over, but SMS remains a pillar of business communications.
⚽ RCS: 2026 World Cup Could Be the Game-Changer
The upcoming FIFA World Cup in North America may be the breakout moment for RCS. With all major US carriers now live and Apple committed to RCS support, Mobilesquared predicts a major boost in RBM adoption—if the industry aligns on execution. A key concern: Google has yet to provide a clear long-term roadmap for RCS, which is making operators hesitant to invest further. That lack of transparency could hold back what should be a flagship moment.
🔐 Network APIs & Identity: High Potential, Slow Progress
Silent authentication and mobile identity via network APIs are gaining attention, but adoption remains limited. Only ~2% of A2P SMS spend has shifted to APIs so far. The main obstacle? Unclear and inconsistent pricing. Telcos need to align quickly if they want to capture the full value of identity services.
📈 Reminder: Messaging Isn’t All of CPaaS
Nick’s presentation focused on messaging, which Mobilesquared often uses interchangeably with CPaaS. At CPaaSAA, we take a broader view: CPaaS includes anything programmable in communications—messaging, voice, video, and network APIs. We’ve projected the total CPaaS market to reach $100 billion by 2030, and with Mobilesquared forecasting over $50 billion from messaging alone, we’re well on track.
For more detail, watch for our State of CPaaS 2025 report—launching this September at CASA25—which will offer a deeper dive into the full CPaaS landscape and its future trajectory.
💡 Want the Full Recording? Join the Inner Circle
This session was exclusively for CPaaSAA members. The Inner Circle brings together analysts, innovators, and senior leaders for real conversations about the future of programmable communications. Want access to the full recording and slides? Join our community.